October Suprise: Coincidence or Conspiracy?

Recently, Joseph Cofer Black, the U.S. State Department coordinator for counterterrorism stated that “What I tell people, I would be surprised but not necessarily shocked if we wake up tomorrow and he's been caught " The 'he' he referred to was none other than Osama bin Laden.

Some people (often called 'conspiracy nuts') believe that the army/administration will announce in October that Osama has been captured. The whole idea is that the capture would certainly catapult Bush in the election. They claim that the army/administration either knows where Osama is now or hasn't tried to get him until near the election.
While many of these people are dismissed, a pro-conservative journal The National Review, in July, reported that "the administration significantly increased its pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden". (Though I won't register for the site...) My understanding is that the capture of an HVT (high-value target) was to be timed around the DNC. One can only assume, if true, that it would be to reduce DNC coverage. That was what happened;Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani was captured and it was reported during (or just after) the DNC.

What if Osama bin Laden is captured between now and the election? Would it be simply for political purposes? If he is captured, what would be the affect on the voter? Would it be a simple coincidence or a conspiracy?