Economics: Part II: Job Growth
One of the most contentious issues in this election is job growth. Seemingly, this is a downer for George Bush since Bush is on track to be first president since Herbert Hoover to end his term with fewer jobs than when he started.
The statistics:
During the Bush term, job loss peaked at 2.6 million jobs lost.
Current job loss is at 1.2 million overall, 1.8 million in the private sector. Even with the (traditionally) high estimates of the incumbent administration, total job loss will likely be 400,000. If the latest trend (often referred to as stalled) continues the total job loss will likely be around 1 million.
Unemployment rate is at 5.5%. Republicans point out that at the end of Clinton's first term unemployment was the same. However, Dems point out that Clinton's first term was coming out of a Republican recession and that new adjustments to unemployment skew the actual numbers.
Overall recent data indicates that may be better quality jobs but that the overall pay (adjusted properly for inflation) has, in fact, decreased.
Why has America lost jobs? Is it the administration's fault? Is it the combination of the administration and Congress? Is it completely natural? Can anything be done? What proposals do the candidates have? Will they work?
posted by TheRadicalModerate @ 8/27/2004 06:03:00 PM
9 Comments:
I guess no one really cares about economics.
It's not that I don't care, but it's one of those (feel free to edit if necesary) "dazzle them with your brilliance, or baffle them with bullshit" issues on both sides. Bush uses one set of numbers; Kerry another, and both sets come from the govt! I hate math, so I will limit my view to the world around me. My son flickers in and out of jobs like a moth, so I know jobs are out there. As far as career level jobs, I am looking for one. There are plenty of websites and job offerings out there.
Gecko,
i don't understand the term career level jobs.
I think of jobs in two ways - hourly wage or salaried. It would be difficult to make a career out of hourly wage. i would assume that one would not want to especially if we're talking minimum hourly wage!
Mac
I guess you could put it that way. I use career level to state jobs that are within a career path vs. entry level jobs. Career level would almost always have salaries, however some trade industry careers still pay by the hour. I also consider jobs obtained out of college as being career level jobs if they fit your career goals. I would lump entry level jobs in with service industry jobs (and hourly wages).
Except "career-level" jobs are exactly the problem. We have lost jobs, there is no doubt about that. The Bush administration says we are now gaining jobs, that is also true only as Bill originally pointed out the job growth can only be termed anemic.
The problem is that we are losing jobs that cannot be reclaimed. That is we lose a job in Field X, but gain a job in Field Y. It seems like to me that the Bush admin's (only) solution is simply to retrain people so that they can now work in Field Y. The problem with that is you now have lost all the time and experience you had in Field X and have to start new in Field Y.
I worked for UPS for 8 years. When I moved to Louisiana for my wife's career I had to quit because that was policy. I could have possibly been rehired in Lousiana but I would lose all seniority (and accompanying benefits and pay) and start all over. Thus I would go from making $15-20 an hour to $8-10 an hour. I would get no vacation time in the first year and would not be covered under the health plan until after the first year.
So yes we are both losing and gaining jobs. The problem is that someone loses a job they worked for 10 years and has to start brand new at a new job. That means they lose their higher pay, and their previous benefits. In addition, a worker embedded in a job tends to have cheaper and better health care than one who begins a new job (especially dental).
"so I know jobs are out there. As far as career level jobs, I am looking for one."
That's going to be my problem soon. I graduate this academic year. Sure there are some jobs out there but there are not many entry jobs. They all want experience which you can't get if you don't already have experience. Also, I keep hearing about 'retraining'. My problem with that is what good is retraining if all your life you've worked one job and then its gone. You have to start all over at the new job. Didn't I read that somewhere?
Josh
Josh, old guy to young guy advice: I don't know which level of school you will graduate from, so I will try to cover each. I'm about to retire from the Marine Corps, so I have a great deal of technical experience, hence the career level thing. If you are graduating high school, you either 1) want to find a good job or 2) want to go to college.
Say you don't want to go to college (cuz your sick of school; I was) and just want to get a good job. Take my advice; join the military. If you are a liberal, join the Air Force. They have the best perks and easiest jobs. If you just want to travel, join the Navy, but be sure to get a specification in your contract. If you join the Navy under an open contract, it WILL be very bad for you. If you are hardcore, join the Marines, again ask about specifications and also bonus incentives. Parents are supposed to tell their children that if you don't have anything good to say don't say anything, so I won't mention the Army.
If your smart you can do great things for your country, and you are smart, you're going to graduate right? You can also take the time you serve to reconsider going to college under the GI Bill.
If you want to go to college, you either have to have money or high grades. Speak with your school counselor on this one. I am one of the great unwashed.
If you are graduating college, be sure to look for your local job fairs. If your single and don't mind relocating, the world is your oyster, unless you are an art major.
gecko,
I"m sorry to keep asking you for explanations of your words. What does great unwashed mean?
Mac
Mac, in the context which I have presented it, I meant that I am one of those people who has yet to attend any college course, relying solely on my HS education and real world experiences (i.e. the Marines) to better myself. I do have one regret that I did not take advantage of the free tuition assistance available to the military.
Post a Comment
<< Home